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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

18-20  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, May 10 • 4:05 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

13-26  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jared Triolo
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Triolo

#19 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Lee None-None 2.25 -- 0.2 2
Jared Triolo None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.25 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
64%
📊
PIRATES
36%
BRAVES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 76%
Under 0 24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Atlanta)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

73.6%

Pirates Cover

26.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.1%

ATL By 3-4 runs

19.2%

PIT By 1-2 runs

12.0%

PIT By 3-4 runs

6.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
ATLANTA
2.18
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.9
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 9, 2026 ATL @ PIT 10 - 5
Jul 8, 2026 ATL @ PIT 3 - 0
Jul 7, 2026 ATL @ PIT 4 - 12
Jun 7, 2026 PIT @ ATL 2 - 3
Jun 6, 2026 PIT @ ATL 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.757 ▲
OPS
.734
1
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +32.0% more
Atlanta: 7.7 vs Pittsburgh: 5.3
Strikeouts (L5) +31.9% more
Atlanta: 11.3 vs Pittsburgh: 7.7
Total Bases (L5) +19.1% more
Atlanta: 10.7 vs Pittsburgh: 8.7
Errors (L5) +11.0% more
Atlanta: 0.3 vs Pittsburgh: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.7 3
PIT Score 2.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.3 / 7.7 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 11.3 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 8.7 / 10.7 10.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.3 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ATL
PIT
ATL
ML
52% 82-77
46% 77-90
52% 85-78
54% 90-78
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 96-71
50% 81-82
52% 87-81
TTL
47% 72-81-6
53% 83-73-11
50% 79-78-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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