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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

22-16  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, May 10 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

20-19  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Kurtz

#16 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Hill None-None 3.00 -- 0.1 --
Nick Kurtz None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
57%
📊
ATHLETICS
43%
YANKEES --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

83.8%

Athletics Cover

16.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.5%

NYY By 3-4 runs

19.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

8.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

3.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6.81
NEW YORK
2.87
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
7
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.9
D
Sim Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 31, 2026 NYY @ ATH 13 - 8
May 30, 2026 NYY @ ATH 4 - 6
May 29, 2026 NYY @ ATH 8 - 2
Apr 9, 2026 ATH @ NYY 1 - 0
Apr 8, 2026 ATH @ NYY 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Athletics ATH
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041 ▲
OPS
.719
2
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +78.7% more
New York: 2.5 vs Athletics: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season) +52.1% more
New York: 9.0 vs Athletics: 4.3
Total Bases (L5) +33.3% more
New York: 19.0 vs Athletics: 12.6
OPS (Season) +32.2%
New York: 1.0% vs Athletics: 71.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 6.8 7
ATH Score 2.9 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.2 / 9.0 14.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 2.5 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.7 9.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 19.0 27.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.5 / 2.5 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
NYY
ATH
NYY
ML
59% 95-67
47% 76-85
54% 87-74
52% 85-77
ATS
52% 84-78
59% 95-66
50% 81-80
53% 86-76
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 81-73-7
42% 66-90-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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