ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
20-19 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
17-22 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andre Pallante
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Crews
#3 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | None-None | 4.36 | -- | 7.1 | 7 |
| Dylan Crews | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.36
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
7.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
7
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
58%
NATIONALS
42%
CARDINALS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
18.0%
WSH By 1-2 runs
14.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
8.5%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.83
ST. LOUIS
Washington
3.08
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
WSH @ STL
3 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
WSH @ STL
8 - 5
Sep 18, 2026
WSH @ STL
9 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
STL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 7, 2026
STL @ WSH
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.691
OPS
▲
.744
167
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+169.8% more
Washington: 5.5
vs
St. Louis: 2.1
Home Runs (Season)
+25.7% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+14.2% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season)
+5.3%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.8
4
WSH Score
3.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 9.4
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.1
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 13.6
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
5.5 / 2.1
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
STL
WSH
STL
ML
57%
92-69
53%
85-74
54%
87-74
52%
84-77
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
89-70
57%
91-70
53%
85-76
TTL
50%
77-78-6
46%
68-81-10
42%
65-90-6
50%
76-75-10
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