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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

20-20  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, May 10 • 7:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

24-16  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Ceddanne Rafaela
STARTING PITCHER

Ceddanne Rafaela

#3 | Center Field
@
Salvador Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Salvador Perez

#13 | Designated Hitter
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ceddanne Rafaela None-None -- -- -- --
Salvador Perez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
40%
📊
ROYALS
60%
RED SOX --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

50.9%

Royals Cover

49.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

13.8%

KC By 1-2 runs

18.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.9
BOSTON
4.81
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 KC @ BOS 3 - 2
May 20, 2026 BOS @ KC 4 - 3
May 19, 2026 BOS @ KC 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .718
2
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +72.3% more
Boston: 3.8 vs Kansas City: 1.1
Home Runs (L5) +20.0% more
Boston: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.7
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Boston: 0.3 vs Kansas City: 0.1
Home Runs (Season) +8400.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.9 10
KC Score 4.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.7 / 7.4 9.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 7.9 12.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 11.5 10.0 / 25.0
Walks 1.1 / 3.8 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BOS
KC
BOS
ML
55% 89-72
50% 80-80
56% 90-70
47% 76-87
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-67
58% 93-67
48% 79-84
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 72-83-5
54% 83-70-7
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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