CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
19-21 | Road
13
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
19-18 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Okert
#48 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.95 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Steven Okert | None-None | 1.35 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.95
ERA
Ldr 1.35
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
46%
ASTROS
54%
REDS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.1%
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5.23
CINCINNATI
Houston
4.33
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
HOU @ CIN
0 - 5
May 9, 2026
HOU @ CIN
1 - 3
May 8, 2026
HOU @ CIN
10 - 0
May 11, 2025
CIN @ HOU
0 - 6
May 10, 2025
CIN @ HOU
13 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.229
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.699
▲
OPS
.582
213
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+27.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.4
vs
Houston: 0.2
OPS (Season)
+11.7%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.2
13
HOU Score
4.3
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 6.2
14.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 9.6
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 9.8
22.0 / 20.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.2
9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CIN
HOU
CIN
ML
50%
81-82
55%
88-71
47%
77-87
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
91-72
54%
86-73
55%
90-74
50%
80-80
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
81-73-5
45%
69-86-9
54%
83-72-5
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