Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Twins SF @ MIN

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

24-15  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, May 10 • 7:15 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

19-20  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Joe Ryan
STARTING PITCHER

Joe Ryan

#41 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Webb None-None 2.60 -- 7.0 9
Joe Ryan None-None 2.74 -- 6.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
2.60 Ldr ERA 2.74
-- WHIP --
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
9 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
63%
📊
TWINS
37%
GIANTS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Minnesota)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

32.0%

Twins Cover

68.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

SF By 1-2 runs

13.9%

SF By 3-4 runs

8.2%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

18.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.82
SAN FRANCISCO
5.69
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Win
37% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 MIN @ SF 4 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 MIN @ SF 3 - 2
Sep 21, 2026 MIN @ SF 2 - 5
May 11, 2025 SF @ MIN 6 - 7
May 10, 2025 SF @ MIN 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +12.1% more
Minnesota: 9.5 vs San Francisco: 8.4
Runs per Game (Season) +10.4% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Home Runs (Season) +5.1% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
OPS (Season) +1.4%
Minnesota: 72.0% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.8 1
MIN Score 5.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.8 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 8.4 9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 11.7 10.0 / 8.0
Walks 1.1 / 3.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SF
MIN
SF
ML
52% 84-78
49% 79-81
50% 80-81
53% 85-75
ATS
59% 95-67
62% 100-60
59% 95-66
52% 83-77
TTL
51% 78-75-9
55% 82-68-10
53% 80-72-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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