Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Mets CHC @ NYM

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

22-17  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, May 10 • 7:15 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

25-14  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Tyrone Taylor
STARTING PITCHER

Tyrone Taylor

#55 | Left Field
@
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyrone Taylor None-None -- -- -- --
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
42%
📊
METS
58%
CUBS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (New York)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

39.2%

Mets Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.1%

CHC By 3-4 runs

10.3%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.4
CHICAGO
6.5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 CHC @ NYM 4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 CHC @ NYM 10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026 CHC @ NYM 9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026 NYM @ CHC 1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026 NYM @ CHC 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.374
OPS
▲ .705
0
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20400.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +381.0% more
New York: 4.3 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +65.9% more
New York: 2.2 vs Chicago: 1.4
Total Bases (L5) +62.3% more
New York: 18.9 vs Chicago: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.4 6
NYM Score 6.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.6 / 6.2 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 8.5 10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 18.9 / 11.6 14.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.6 / 2.9 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CHC
NYM
CHC
ML
50% 79-80
58% 93-68
48% 76-83
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-66
61% 97-63-1
49% 78-81
47% 75-85-1
TTL
55% 80-66-13
52% 81-74-6
51% 74-72-13
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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