Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Diamondbacks LAD @ ARI

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

26-13  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, May 10 • 8:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

20-19  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Geraldo Perdomo
STARTING PITCHER

Geraldo Perdomo

#2 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Vesia None-None 3.38 -- 0.1 1
Geraldo Perdomo None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
66%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
34%
DODGERS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

50.5%

Diamondbacks Cover

49.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.5%

LAD By 3-4 runs

13.7%

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6.03
LOS ANGELES
5.98
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
66% Win Prob
C
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
B
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026 LAD @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026 ARI @ LAD 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ARI @ LAD 9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762 ▲
OPS
.720
204 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +22.5% more
Los Angeles: 11.7 vs Arizona: 9.1
Home Runs (Season) +18.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Runs per Game (Season) +7.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season) +4.2%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 6.0 0
ARI Score 6.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 11.7 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 7.6 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 18.4 / 19.8 16.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAD
ARI
LAD
ML
54% 87-74
56% 92-73
54% 86-74
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 98-67
56% 89-71
43% 72-94
TTL
52% 80-73-8
48% 77-82-6
49% 73-77-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 1 hour, 46 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 7 hours, 35 minutes ago
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
newspub_live 13 hours, 42 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 13 hours, 42 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 19 hours, 46 minutes ago