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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

23-17  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, May 11 • 12:05 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

25-15  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Gavin Hollowell
STARTING PITCHER

Gavin Hollowell

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gavin Hollowell None-None 1.42 -- 0.2 --
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.42 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
45%
📊
METS
55%
CUBS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (New York)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

42.2%

Mets Cover

57.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.8%

CHC By 3-4 runs

11.2%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.69
CHICAGO
6.48
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 CHC @ NYM 4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 CHC @ NYM 10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026 CHC @ NYM 9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026 NYM @ CHC 1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026 NYM @ CHC 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.374
OPS
▲ .705
0
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20400.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +381.0% more
New York: 4.3 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +74.2% more
New York: 2.2 vs Chicago: 1.2
Walks (L5) +69.8% more
New York: 4.4 vs Chicago: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.7 2
NYM Score 6.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 7.2 12.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 1.2 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 9.7 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 17.3 / 12.1 24.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.6 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CHC
NYM
CHC
ML
50% 79-80
58% 93-68
48% 76-83
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-66
61% 97-63-1
49% 78-81
47% 75-85-1
TTL
55% 80-66-13
52% 81-74-6
51% 74-72-13
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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