ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
19-20 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
13-27 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 5.87 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 5.20 | -- | 5.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.87
ERA
Ldr 5.20
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
66%
PIRATES
34%
BRAVES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.11
ATLANTA
Pittsburgh
2.61
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Atlanta
2
ATLANTA
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
ATL @ PIT
10 - 5
Jul 8, 2026
ATL @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 7, 2026
ATL @ PIT
4 - 12
Jun 7, 2026
PIT @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
PIT @ ATL
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.757
▲
OPS
.734
1
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.3% more
Atlanta: 10.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+15.6% more
Atlanta: 10.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.1
Errors (L5)
+8.0% more
Atlanta: 0.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.4% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.1
3
PIT Score
2.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 6.8
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 10.9
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.1 / 10.8
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.5
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ATL
PIT
ATL
ML
52%
82-77
46%
77-90
52%
85-78
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
96-71
50%
81-82
52%
87-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
83-73-11
50%
79-78-6
49%
76-80-11
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