Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Rays MIL @ TB

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

19-21  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, May 11 • 1:40 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

18-21  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Megill None-None 3.18 -- 1.0 1
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 1.80 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.18 ERA Ldr 1.80
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
51%
📊
RAYS
49%
BREWERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Milwaukee)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

67.4%

Rays Cover

32.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

18.1%

TB By 1-2 runs

14.1%

TB By 3-4 runs

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.31
MILWAUKEE
2.51
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brewers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
B
Sim Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 TB @ MIL 2 - 8
Mar 31, 2026 TB @ MIL 2 - 6
Mar 30, 2026 TB @ MIL 3 - 2
May 11, 2025 MIL @ TB 4 - 2
May 10, 2025 MIL @ TB 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.258
Avg (AVG)
.258
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.743 ▲
OPS
.728
154
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +39.3% more
Milwaukee: 4.5 vs Tampa Bay: 2.8
Home Runs (L5) +35.3% more
Milwaukee: 1.0 vs Tampa Bay: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +11.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.5%
Milwaukee: 34.1% vs Tampa Bay: 32.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.3 4
TB Score 2.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 5.7 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 7.4 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 9.5 / 9.8 11.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.5 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
TB
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIL
TB
MIL
ML
58% 95-68
62% 101-61
58% 95-68
52% 84-78
ATS
60% 97-66
58% 94-68
55% 90-73
48% 78-84
TTL
47% 73-81-9
40% 62-92-8
51% 78-75-10
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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