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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

20-21  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, May 11 • 2:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

19-19  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Chase Petty
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Petty

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ronel Blanco
STARTING PITCHER

Ronel Blanco

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chase Petty None-None 21.94 -- 3.0 4
Ronel Blanco None-None 4.04 -- 8.0 11
None-None W-L None-None
21.94 ERA Ldr 4.04
-- WHIP --
3.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 8.0
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 11
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
49%
📊
ASTROS
51%
REDS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

61.7%

Astros Cover

38.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.8%

HOU By 1-2 runs

15.8%

HOU By 3-4 runs

10.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.66
CINCINNATI
4.47
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Astros (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 HOU @ CIN 0 - 5
May 9, 2026 HOU @ CIN 1 - 3
May 8, 2026 HOU @ CIN 10 - 0
May 11, 2025 CIN @ HOU 0 - 6
May 10, 2025 CIN @ HOU 13 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.229 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.305 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.699 ▲
OPS
.582
213 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +31.2% more
Cincinnati: 1.1 vs Houston: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season) +27.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1 vs Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5) +13.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.2 vs Houston: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 5.7 0
HOU Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.2 / 8.1 9.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.0 / 9.7 12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 16.8 / 13.2 13.0 / 4.0
Walks 5.7 / 3.8 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CIN
HOU
CIN
ML
50% 81-82
55% 88-71
47% 77-87
49% 79-81
ATS
56% 91-72
54% 86-73
55% 90-74
50% 80-80
TTL
45% 70-84-9
53% 81-73-5
45% 69-86-9
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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