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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

21-20  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, May 11 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

24-17  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 1.88 -- 1.0 --
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 0.93 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.88 ERA Ldr 0.93
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
43%
📊
ROYALS
57%
RED SOX --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

61.2%

Royals Cover

38.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

15.9%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.69
BOSTON
4.55
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 KC @ BOS 3 - 2
May 20, 2026 BOS @ KC 4 - 3
May 19, 2026 BOS @ KC 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .718
2
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +76.0% more
Boston: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +64.5% more
Boston: 1.2 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Walks (L5) +29.0% more
Boston: 2.9 vs Kansas City: 2.0
Total Bases (L5) +12.9% more
Boston: 16.0 vs Kansas City: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.7 3
KC Score 4.6 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.1 / 10.0 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 8.9 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 16.0 4.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BOS
KC
BOS
ML
55% 89-72
50% 80-80
56% 90-70
47% 76-87
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-67
58% 93-67
48% 79-84
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 72-83-5
54% 83-70-7
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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