Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Diamondbacks LAD @ ARI

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

26-14  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, May 11 • 4:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

21-19  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Zac Gallen
STARTING PITCHER

Zac Gallen

#23 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tanner Scott None-None 1.83 -- 1.0 --
Zac Gallen None-None 4.59 -- 5.2 5
None-None W-L None-None
1.83 Ldr ERA 4.59
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
63%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
37%
DODGERS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 41%
Under 0 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Arizona)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

47.2%

Diamondbacks Cover

52.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

LAD By 1-2 runs

17.9%

LAD By 3-4 runs

12.7%

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.9%

ARI By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.64
LOS ANGELES
5.92
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
37% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026 LAD @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026 ARI @ LAD 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ARI @ LAD 9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762 ▲
OPS
.720
204 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +92.3% more
Arizona: 2.0 vs Los Angeles: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +18.3% more
Arizona: 17.6 vs Los Angeles: 14.9
Errors (L5) +10.0% more
Arizona: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Walks (L5) +9.5% more
Arizona: 3.1 vs Los Angeles: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.6 8
ARI Score 5.9 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 9.5 6.0 / 18.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.7 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 17.6 / 14.9 8.0 / 28.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAD
ARI
LAD
ML
54% 87-74
56% 92-73
54% 86-74
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 98-67
56% 89-71
43% 72-94
TTL
52% 80-73-8
48% 77-82-6
49% 73-77-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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