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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

7-33  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, May 12 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

20-21  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Mickey Moniak
STARTING PITCHER

Mickey Moniak

#22 | Left Field
@
Ezequiel Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Ezequiel Duran

#20 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mickey Moniak None-None -- -- -- --
Ezequiel Duran None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
18%
📊
RANGERS
82%
ROCKIES --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

55.3%

Rangers Cover

44.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

19.2%

COL By 3-4 runs

15.1%

TEX By 1-2 runs

17.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.77
COLORADO
3.24
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Loss
18% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 20, 2026 TEX @ COL 5 - 4
May 19, 2026 TEX @ COL 10 - 0
May 18, 2026 TEX @ COL 6 - 7
May 14, 2025 COL @ TEX 3 - 8
May 13, 2025 COL @ TEX 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.739 ▲
OPS
.713
180
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +93.5% more
Colorado: 1.4 vs Texas: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +10.6% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Texas: 4.2
OPS (Season) +2.6%
Colorado: 73.9% vs Texas: 71.3%
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.1%
Colorado: 41.7% vs Texas: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.8 1
TEX Score 3.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 9.5 3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 5.7 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 16.7 6.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.9 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
COL
TEX
COL
ML
53% 86-76
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 92-70
60% 97-64
61% 98-63
52% 83-78
TTL
53% 78-70-14
60% 93-62-6
55% 81-66-14
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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