NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
23-17 | Road
11
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
22-17 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hill | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 4.43 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.86 Ldr
ERA
4.43
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
51%
MARINERS
49%
YANKEES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
74%
Under 0
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
15.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.4%
SEA By 1-2 runs
7.1%
SEA By 3-4 runs
3.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
7.94
NEW YORK
Seattle
3.65
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Seattle
6
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.3
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.6
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
SEA @ NYY
5 - 10
Aug 11, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 4
Apr 1, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 3
Mar 31, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Seattle
SEA
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
1.041
▲
OPS
.693
2
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+61.0% more
New York: 2.1
vs
Seattle: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+54.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Total Bases (L5)
+47.8% more
New York: 20.8
vs
Seattle: 10.8
Hits (L5)
+37.3% more
New York: 11.0
vs
Seattle: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
7.9
11
SEA Score
3.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 11.0
6.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 2.1
3.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 8.3
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 20.8
16.0 / 30.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.6
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
NYY
SEA
NYY
ML
50%
81-81
47%
76-85
52%
85-77
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
98-64
59%
95-66
59%
95-67
53%
86-76
TTL
56%
85-67-10
53%
81-73-7
53%
81-71-10
53%
82-72-7
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