CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
12-29 | Road
5
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
20-22 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Edgar Quero
#26 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgar Quero | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 4.05 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.05
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
31%
REDS
69%
WHITE SOX
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
74%
Under 0
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CHW By 1-2 runs
17.2%
CHW By 3-4 runs
11.8%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.88
CHICAGO
Cincinnati
4.49
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
CIN @ CHW
9 - 8
Aug 12, 2026
CIN @ CHW
0 - 5
Aug 11, 2026
CIN @ CHW
5 - 4
May 15, 2025
CHW @ CIN
1 - 7
May 14, 2025
CHW @ CIN
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.826
▲
OPS
.699
1
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+21200.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+85.6% more
Cincinnati: 9.8
vs
Chicago: 5.3
Walks (L5)
+19.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.9
vs
Chicago: 4.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.5% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.9
5
CIN Score
4.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 6.2
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 5.3
10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.1 / 9.6
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.9 / 4.1
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHW
CIN
CHW
ML
55%
88-71
49%
81-86
49%
79-81
56%
94-73
ATS
54%
86-73
59%
99-68
50%
80-80
56%
93-74
TTL
53%
81-73-5
58%
96-69-2
54%
83-72-5
51%
84-81-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…