PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
14-28 | Road
1
NEW YORK
METSNYM
27-15 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 7.0 | 8 |
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 1.02 | -- | 5.2 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.15
ERA
Ldr 1.02
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.2
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
7
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
22%
METS
78%
PIRATES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
13.3%
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.96
PITTSBURGH
New York
4.06
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
78% Win Prob
B
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
NYM @ PIT
11 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
NYM @ PIT
0 - 9
Aug 7, 2026
NYM @ PIT
6 - 4
Mar 29, 2026
PIT @ NYM
4 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
PIT @ NYM
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.734
▲
OPS
.705
186
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+105.0% more
New York: 1.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+72.5% more
New York: 17.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.1
Errors (L5)
+51.0% more
New York: 0.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+36.8% more
New York: 10.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.0
1
NYM Score
4.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 7.3
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.0
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
17.3 / 10.1
9.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PIT
NYM
PIT
ML
50%
79-80
52%
82-77
48%
76-83
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
93-66
54%
86-73
49%
78-81
50%
81-82
TTL
55%
80-66-13
47%
72-81-6
51%
74-72-13
50%
79-78-6
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