KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
25-18 | Road
1
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
20-20 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 0.47 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 1.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.47 Ldr
ERA
1.50
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
58%
ASTROS
42%
ROYALS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
KC By 1-2 runs
18.2%
KC By 3-4 runs
13.2%
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
14.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.55
KANSAS CITY
Houston
4.69
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
KC @ HOU
2 - 6
Sep 16, 2026
KC @ HOU
5 - 2
Sep 15, 2026
KC @ HOU
2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026
HOU @ KC
0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
HOU @ KC
8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.718
▲
OPS
.582
170
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+86.9% more
Houston: 4.0
vs
Kansas City: 2.1
Total Bases (L5)
+18.0% more
Houston: 15.0
vs
Kansas City: 12.7
Hits (L5)
+17.3% more
Houston: 10.6
vs
Kansas City: 9.1
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.6
1
HOU Score
4.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.6 / 9.1
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.6
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 12.7
14.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.1
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
KC
HOU
KC
ML
50%
81-82
55%
89-72
47%
77-87
56%
90-70
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
91-70
55%
90-74
58%
93-67
TTL
45%
70-84-9
58%
90-64-7
45%
69-86-9
54%
83-70-7
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