MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
21-20 | Road
8
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
15-24 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dean Kremer
#13 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler O'Neill
#9 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | None-None | 5.36 | -- | 5.2 | 4 |
| Tyler O'Neill | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.36
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
5.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
4
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
63%
ORIOLES
37%
TWINS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
72%
Under 0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.2%
MIN By 3-4 runs
15.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.67
MINNESOTA
Baltimore
3.1
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 2
Aug 10, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 9
Mar 29, 2026
MIN @ BAL
6 - 8
Mar 28, 2026
MIN @ BAL
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720
▲
OPS
.711
187
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.2% more
Minnesota: 9.5
vs
Baltimore: 8.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.2% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.1%
Minnesota: 24.5%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
OPS (Season)
+0.9%
Minnesota: 72.0%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.7
8
BAL Score
3.1
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 4.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.4
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.5
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 13.0
8.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.0 / 1.8
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
MIN
BAL
MIN
ML
53%
83-73
52%
84-78
57%
90-69
50%
80-81
ATS
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-67
57%
90-68-1
59%
95-66
TTL
54%
81-70-5
51%
78-75-9
51%
78-75-6
53%
80-72-9
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