NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
24-18 | Road
3
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
23-18 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Fernando Cruz
#63 | RP@
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Cruz | None-None | 2.42 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.42 Ldr
ERA
2.70
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
51%
MARINERS
49%
YANKEES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
17.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.7%
SEA By 1-2 runs
9.0%
SEA By 3-4 runs
4.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
7.53
NEW YORK
Seattle
3.98
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.6
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
SEA @ NYY
5 - 10
Aug 11, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 4
Apr 1, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 3
Mar 31, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Seattle
SEA
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
1.041
▲
OPS
.693
2
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+54.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Home Runs (L5)
+43.4% more
New York: 1.8
vs
Seattle: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+41.3% more
New York: 18.2
vs
Seattle: 10.7
Hits (L5)
+35.2% more
New York: 9.9
vs
Seattle: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
7.5
3
SEA Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 9.9
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.8
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 10.2
12.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 18.2
7.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.5
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
NYY
SEA
NYY
ML
50%
81-81
47%
76-85
52%
85-77
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
98-64
59%
95-66
59%
95-67
53%
86-76
TTL
56%
85-67-10
53%
81-73-7
53%
81-71-10
53%
82-72-7
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