Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Mets PIT @ NYM

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

14-29  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

28-15  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Jared Triolo
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Triolo

#19 | Shortstop
@
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jared Triolo None-None -- -- -- --
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
21%
📊
METS
79%
PIRATES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (New York)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

38.0%

Mets Cover

62.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

PIT By 1-2 runs

15.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.0%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.21
PITTSBURGH
4.43
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
79% Win Prob
B
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 NYM @ PIT 11 - 1
Aug 8, 2026 NYM @ PIT 0 - 9
Aug 7, 2026 NYM @ PIT 6 - 4
Mar 29, 2026 PIT @ NYM 4 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 PIT @ NYM 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.734 ▲
OPS
.705
186
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +103.0% more
New York: 1.4 vs Pittsburgh: 0.4
Errors (L5) +101.0% more
New York: 1.1 vs Pittsburgh: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +50.1% more
New York: 14.6 vs Pittsburgh: 9.7
Walks (L5) +34.3% more
New York: 4.2 vs Pittsburgh: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.2 4
NYM Score 4.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 6.9 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 7.3 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 9.7 6.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.2 / 3.1 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PIT
NYM
PIT
ML
50% 79-80
52% 82-77
48% 76-83
52% 85-78
ATS
58% 93-66
54% 86-73
49% 78-81
50% 81-82
TTL
55% 80-66-13
47% 72-81-6
51% 74-72-13
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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