Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Reds CHW @ CIN

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

13-29  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 7:14 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

20-23  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Davis Martin
STARTING PITCHER

Davis Martin

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
Nick Lodolo
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Lodolo

#40 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Davis Martin None-None 3.65 -- 6.2 5
Nick Lodolo None-None 3.42 -- 5.1 4
None-None W-L None-None
3.65 ERA Ldr 3.42
-- WHIP --
6.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.1
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
34%
📊
REDS
66%
WHITE SOX --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Cincinnati)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

28.1%

Reds Cover

71.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CHW By 1-2 runs

12.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

7.0%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.27
CHICAGO
4.59
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
6
CHICAGO
4
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Loss
66% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim White Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.9
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CIN @ CHW 9 - 8
Aug 12, 2026 CIN @ CHW 0 - 5
Aug 11, 2026 CIN @ CHW 5 - 4
May 15, 2025 CHW @ CIN 1 - 7
May 14, 2025 CHW @ CIN 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Cincinnati CIN
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.826 ▲
OPS
.699
1
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21200.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +31.2% more
Cincinnati: 9.9 vs Chicago: 7.5
Walks (L5) +28.7% more
Cincinnati: 3.9 vs Chicago: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season) +31.5% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 2.3 4
CIN Score 4.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.1 / 7.1 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 7.5 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 11.1 17.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.0 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHW
CIN
CHW
ML
55% 88-71
49% 81-86
49% 79-81
56% 94-73
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 99-68
50% 80-80
56% 93-74
TTL
53% 81-73-5
58% 96-69-2
54% 83-72-5
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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