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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

17-26  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

21-21  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Keibert Ruiz
STARTING PITCHER

Keibert Ruiz

#20 | Catcher
@
Bryce Elder
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Elder

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Keibert Ruiz None-None -- -- -- --
Bryce Elder None-None 4.50 -- 6.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.50
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
40%
📊
BRAVES
60%
NATIONALS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 79%
Under 0 21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Atlanta)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

43.9%

Braves Cover

56.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.2%

WSH By 3-4 runs

11.8%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.6
WASHINGTON
4.21
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Braves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim Braves (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATL @ WSH 9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026 ATL @ WSH 5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 WSH @ ATL 3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.744
OPS
▲ .757
210 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +36.4% more
Atlanta: 9.1 vs Washington: 6.7
Total Bases (L5) +23.6% more
Atlanta: 12.9 vs Washington: 10.5
OPS (Season) +1.3%
Atlanta: 75.7% vs Washington: 74.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.0%
Atlanta: 43.3% vs Washington: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.6 5
ATL Score 4.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.1 / 6.7 8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.5 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 10.5 12.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
46% 77-90
57% 92-69
54% 90-78
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 96-71
58% 93-68
52% 87-81
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 83-73-11
50% 77-78-6
49% 76-80-11
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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