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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

7-35  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

22-21  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Mickey Moniak
STARTING PITCHER

Mickey Moniak

#22 | Left Field
@
Jake Burger
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Burger

#21 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mickey Moniak None-None -- -- -- --
Jake Burger None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
16%
📊
RANGERS
84%
ROCKIES --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Texas)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

49.2%

Rangers Cover

50.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

COL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

13.3%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.06
COLORADO
3.14
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
7
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 20, 2026 TEX @ COL 5 - 4
May 19, 2026 TEX @ COL 10 - 0
May 18, 2026 TEX @ COL 6 - 7
May 14, 2025 COL @ TEX 3 - 8
May 13, 2025 COL @ TEX 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.739 ▲
OPS
.713
180
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +132.0% more
Texas: 1.9 vs Colorado: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +28.6% more
Texas: 8.1 vs Colorado: 6.3
Total Bases (L5) +28.0% more
Texas: 14.1 vs Colorado: 11.0
Errors (L5) +57.0% more
Colorado: 0.6 vs Texas: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.1 3
TEX Score 3.1 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.2 11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.6 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 6.3 14.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 11.0 18.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.0 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
COL
TEX
COL
ML
53% 86-76
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 92-70
60% 97-64
61% 98-63
52% 83-78
TTL
53% 78-70-14
60% 93-62-6
55% 81-66-14
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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