Home / MLB Projections MLB / Athletics @ Dodgers ATH @ LAD

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

22-20  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

27-15  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Hogan Harris
STARTING PITCHER

Hogan Harris

#36 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hogan Harris None-None 4.26 -- 0.1 --
Alex Vesia None-None 3.20 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.26 ERA Ldr 3.20
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
38%
📊
DODGERS
62%
ATHLETICS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

79.1%

Dodgers Cover

20.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

18.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

19.7%

LAD By 1-2 runs

9.9%

LAD By 3-4 runs

4.9%

AI Model Projected Score
7.76
ATHLETICS
4.52
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
7
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.2
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.3
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 LAD @ ATH 1 - 7
Jun 30, 2026 LAD @ ATH 9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026 LAD @ ATH 9 - 4
May 15, 2025 ATH @ LAD 2 - 19
May 14, 2025 ATH @ LAD 3 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.719
OPS
▲ .762
194
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +63.5% more
Athletics: 2.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.9
Walks (L5) +44.7% more
Athletics: 3.7 vs Los Angeles: 2.0
Errors (L5) +25.0% more
Athletics: 0.7 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +23.4% more
Athletics: 22.0 vs Los Angeles: 16.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 7.8 3
LAD Score 4.5 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.9 / 12.4 13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 2.5 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 7.8 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.8 / 22.0 27.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.7 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
ATH
LAD
ATH
ML
56% 92-73
59% 95-67
48% 79-87
54% 87-74
ATS
59% 98-67
52% 84-78
43% 72-94
50% 81-80
TTL
48% 77-82-6
54% 84-73-5
44% 70-90-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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