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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

18-26  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, May 15 • 12:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

21-22  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Raisel Iglesias None-None 5.71 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.71
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
42%
📊
BRAVES
58%
NATIONALS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

39.9%

Braves Cover

60.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.33
WASHINGTON
4.35
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
7
WASHINGTON
3
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATL @ WSH 9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026 ATL @ WSH 5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 WSH @ ATL 3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.744
OPS
▲ .757
210 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +31.0% more
Atlanta: 0.9 vs Washington: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +8.4% more
Atlanta: 12.6 vs Washington: 11.7
OPS (Season) +1.3%
Atlanta: 75.7% vs Washington: 74.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.0%
Atlanta: 43.3% vs Washington: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.3 2
ATL Score 4.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 8.1 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.6 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 11.7 10.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
46% 77-90
57% 92-69
54% 90-78
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 96-71
58% 93-68
52% 87-81
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 83-73-11
50% 77-78-6
49% 76-80-11
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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