Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Reds CHW @ CIN

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

14-29  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, May 15 • 12:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

20-24  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Miguel Vargas
STARTING PITCHER

Miguel Vargas

#20 | Third Base
@
Tyler Stephenson
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Stephenson

#37 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Miguel Vargas None-None -- -- -- --
Tyler Stephenson None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
37%
📊
REDS
63%
WHITE SOX --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 84%
Under 0 16%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Cincinnati)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

34.5%

Reds Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CHW By 1-2 runs

14.7%

CHW By 3-4 runs

8.9%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.65
CHICAGO
4.25
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.9
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CIN @ CHW 9 - 8
Aug 12, 2026 CIN @ CHW 0 - 5
Aug 11, 2026 CIN @ CHW 5 - 4
May 15, 2025 CHW @ CIN 1 - 7
May 14, 2025 CHW @ CIN 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Cincinnati CIN
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.826 ▲
OPS
.699
1
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21200.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5) +52.5% more
Cincinnati: 3.6 vs Chicago: 2.4
Strikeouts (L5) +27.1% more
Cincinnati: 8.9 vs Chicago: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season) +31.5% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 2.7 1
CIN Score 4.3 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 8.1 12.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.2 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 7.0 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 13.7 22.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.4 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHW
CIN
CHW
ML
55% 88-71
49% 81-86
49% 79-81
56% 94-73
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 99-68
50% 80-80
56% 93-74
TTL
53% 81-73-5
58% 96-69-2
54% 83-72-5
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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