HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
22-20 | Road
0
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
23-21 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | None-None | 1.43 | -- | 8.0 | 9 |
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 2.29 | -- | 8.0 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.43 Ldr
ERA
2.29
--
WHIP
--
8.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
8.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
7
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
50%
RANGERS
50%
ASTROS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
14.7%
TEX By 1-2 runs
17.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.65
HOUSTON
Texas
4.25
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
TEX @ HOU
3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
TEX @ HOU
4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
TEX @ HOU
2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026
HOU @ TEX
5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026
HOU @ TEX
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.582
OPS
▲
.713
4
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+21.1% more
Houston: 3.3
vs
Texas: 2.6
Home Runs (Season)
+4475.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+89.2% more
Texas: 1.9
vs
Houston: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+38.3% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.7
0
TEX Score
4.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 8.9
3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 9.1
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 14.5
7.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.3
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
HOU
TEX
HOU
ML
53%
86-76
50%
81-82
57%
91-70
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
92-70
56%
91-72
61%
98-63
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
78-70-14
45%
70-84-9
55%
81-66-14
45%
69-86-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…