PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
15-29 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
25-18 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Triolo
#19 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Triolo | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.70
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
27%
PHILLIES
73%
PIRATES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
78%
Under 0
22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.2%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.75
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
3.19
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Loss
27% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
11 - 7
May 17, 2026
PHI @ PIT
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.734
▲
OPS
.724
186
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.4% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+31.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.9
vs
Philadelphia: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+26.6% more
Pittsburgh: 3.7
vs
Philadelphia: 2.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.0% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.8
4
PHI Score
3.2
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.6
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 6.9
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 11.5
12.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.7
5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
59%
97-67
52%
82-77
49%
80-84
52%
85-78
ATS
65%
107-57
54%
86-73
51%
83-81
50%
81-82
TTL
57%
88-67-9
47%
72-81-6
51%
78-76-9
50%
79-78-6
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