Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Yankees NYM @ NYY

NEW YORK

METSNYM

28-16  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 16 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

25-18  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Devin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Devin Williams

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Carlos Rodon
STARTING PITCHER

Carlos Rodon

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Devin Williams None-None 7.80 -- 1.0 3
Carlos Rodon None-None 3.17 -- 5.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
7.80 ERA Ldr 3.17
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
METS
56%
📊
YANKEES
44%
METS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 41%
Under 0 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

73.5%

Yankees Cover

26.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.1%

NYM By 3-4 runs

19.2%

NYY By 1-2 runs

12.1%

NYY By 3-4 runs

6.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.99
NEW YORK
4.48
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
B
Sim Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 NYM @ NYY 0 - 2
Sep 12, 2026 NYM @ NYY 12 - 2
Sep 11, 2026 NYM @ NYY 4 - 6
May 17, 2026 NYY @ NYM 6 - 7
May 16, 2026 NYY @ NYM 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.705
OPS
▲ 1.041
204 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs New York: 2.0
Errors (L5) +61.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs New York: 0.2
Walks (L5) +32.7% more
New York: 3.4 vs New York: 2.3
Runs per Game (Season) +108.8% more
New York: 9.0 vs New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 7.0 2
NYY Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.6 / 7.6 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.8 / 9.1 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 18.2 / 11.7 9.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.4 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
NYM
NYY
NYM
ML
47% 76-85
50% 79-80
52% 85-77
48% 76-83
ATS
59% 95-66
58% 93-66
53% 86-76
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 81-73-7
55% 80-66-13
53% 82-72-7
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 34 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 42 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 6 hours, 30 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 6 hours, 40 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 6 hours, 45 minutes ago