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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

22-22  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, May 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

22-23  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
@
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Raisel Iglesias None-None 5.89 -- 1.0 1
Greg Weissert None-None 3.26 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.89 ERA Ldr 3.26
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
51%
📊
RED SOX
49%
BRAVES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Boston)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

47.8%

Red Sox Cover

52.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.0%

ATL By 3-4 runs

12.9%

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.8%

BOS By 3-4 runs

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.69
ATLANTA
4.91
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 28, 2026 ATL @ BOS 10 - 2
May 27, 2026 ATL @ BOS 0 - 8
May 26, 2026 ATL @ BOS 7 - 6
May 17, 2026 BOS @ ATL 1 - 8
May 16, 2026 BOS @ ATL 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Boston BOS
1
Games Played
▲ 2
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.233 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.757 ▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +142.0% more
Boston: 1.7 vs Atlanta: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +43.5% more
Boston: 16.9 vs Atlanta: 11.8
Errors (L5) +27.0% more
Boston: 1.2 vs Atlanta: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +20.0% more
Boston: 8.3 vs Atlanta: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.7 4
BOS Score 4.9 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.4 / 8.8 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 6.9 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 16.9 / 11.8 11.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.3 / 2.7 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATL
BOS
ATL
ML
50% 80-80
46% 77-90
47% 76-87
54% 90-78
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 96-71
48% 79-84
52% 87-81
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 83-73-11
47% 74-83-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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