ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
24-20 | Road
10
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
25-20 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 5.68 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | None-None | 0.90 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.68
ERA
Ldr 0.90
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
49%
ROYALS
51%
CARDINALS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
18.5%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.8%
KC By 1-2 runs
18.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
13.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.77
ST. LOUIS
Kansas City
4.7
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
A
Sim
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
STL @ KC
12 - 10
Jun 19, 2026
STL @ KC
5 - 6
Jun 18, 2026
STL @ KC
6 - 14
May 17, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 0
May 16, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.691
OPS
▲
.718
167
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+41.0% more
St. Louis: 1.0
vs
Kansas City: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+28.2% more
St. Louis: 2.6
vs
Kansas City: 1.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.1% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Kansas City: 0.3
vs
St. Louis: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.8
10
KC Score
4.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 7.0
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 7.0
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 11.4
18.0 / 18.0
Walks
1.8 / 2.6
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
STL
KC
STL
ML
55%
89-72
53%
85-74
56%
90-70
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
89-70
58%
93-67
53%
85-76
TTL
58%
90-64-7
46%
68-81-10
54%
83-70-7
50%
76-75-10
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