Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Padres SEA @ SD

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

23-19  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, May 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

27-15  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Randy Arozarena
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Arozarena

#56 | Left Field
@
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Randy Arozarena None-None -- -- -- --
Wandy Peralta None-None 5.94 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.94
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
40%
📊
PADRES
60%
MARINERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

64.2%

Padres Cover

35.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.4%

SD By 1-2 runs

15.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.94
SEATTLE
4.48
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Padres (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.4
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 17, 2026 SD @ SEA 8 - 3
May 16, 2026 SD @ SEA 7 - 4
May 15, 2026 SD @ SEA 2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026 SEA @ SD 2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026 SEA @ SD 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.693
OPS
▲ .925
182 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.8% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Walks (L5) +13.9% more
Seattle: 3.2 vs San Diego: 2.8
Strikeouts (L5) +8.1% more
Seattle: 10.3 vs San Diego: 9.4
Runs per Game (Season) +46.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 5.9 5
SD Score 4.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 6.3 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 10.3 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 9.5 12.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SEA
SD
SEA
ML
51% 85-83
50% 81-81
51% 85-82
52% 85-77
ATS
54% 91-77
60% 98-64
55% 92-75
59% 95-67
TTL
51% 82-80-6
56% 85-67-10
54% 86-74-6
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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