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NEW YORK

METSNYM

28-17  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, May 17 • 1:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

26-18  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
@
Fernando Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Fernando Cruz

#63 | RP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
Fernando Cruz None-None 2.66 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.66
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
53%
📊
YANKEES
47%
METS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

70.4%

Yankees Cover

29.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.5%

NYM By 3-4 runs

18.7%

NYY By 1-2 runs

13.2%

NYY By 3-4 runs

7.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.75
NEW YORK
4.61
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
C
Sim Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 NYM @ NYY 0 - 2
Sep 12, 2026 NYM @ NYY 12 - 2
Sep 11, 2026 NYM @ NYY 4 - 6
May 17, 2026 NYY @ NYM 6 - 7
May 16, 2026 NYY @ NYM 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.705
OPS
▲ 1.041
204 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs New York: 2.0
Errors (L5) +74.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs New York: 0.1
Walks (L5) +23.4% more
New York: 4.6 vs New York: 3.5
Runs per Game (Season) +108.8% more
New York: 9.0 vs New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 6.8 3
NYY Score 4.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 6.7 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.6 / 8.0 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 10.5 15.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.5 / 4.6 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
NYM
NYY
NYM
ML
47% 76-85
50% 79-80
52% 85-77
48% 76-83
ATS
59% 95-66
58% 93-66
53% 86-76
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 81-73-7
55% 80-66-13
53% 82-72-7
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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