CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
25-19 | Road
1
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
22-24 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.68 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 3.68
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
59%
REDS
41%
GUARDIANS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
84%
Under 0
16%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.8%
CIN By 1-2 runs
14.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
8.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4.87
CLEVELAND
Cincinnati
3.23
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
CLE @ CIN
6 - 1
Jul 28, 2026
CLE @ CIN
0 - 2
May 17, 2026
CIN @ CLE
3 - 10
May 16, 2026
CIN @ CLE
4 - 7
May 15, 2026
CIN @ CLE
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.696
OPS
▲
.699
162
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+35.0% more
Cleveland: 0.5
vs
Cincinnati: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.8% more
Cleveland: 8.5
vs
Cincinnati: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+1.9% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.1%
Cleveland: 31.6%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.9
1
CIN Score
3.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 6.1
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 8.5
6.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
16.9 / 11.4
18.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.0
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CLE
CIN
CLE
ML
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
49%
80-82
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-68
50%
80-80
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-5
55%
88-71-2
54%
83-72-5
43%
69-90-2
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