ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
23-22 | Road
6
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
22-24 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes | None-None | 4.01 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 2.12 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.01
ERA
Ldr 2.12
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
53%
RED SOX
47%
BRAVES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
79%
Under 0
21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
14.1%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.1%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.66
ATLANTA
Boston
4.47
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 28, 2026
ATL @ BOS
10 - 2
May 27, 2026
ATL @ BOS
0 - 8
May 26, 2026
ATL @ BOS
7 - 6
May 17, 2026
BOS @ ATL
1 - 8
May 16, 2026
BOS @ ATL
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.757
▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+80.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+34.8%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+18.3%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+16.5%
Atlanta: 32.4%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.7
6
BOS Score
4.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.2
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.9
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 7.9
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 12.2
20.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.8
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATL
BOS
ATL
ML
50%
80-80
46%
77-90
47%
76-87
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
93-67
57%
96-71
48%
79-84
52%
87-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
83-73-11
47%
74-83-6
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…