SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
24-19 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
27-16 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
1.93
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
43%
PADRES
57%
MARINERS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
18.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
12.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
7.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
6.34
SEATTLE
San Diego
4.03
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
C
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
SD @ SEA
8 - 3
May 16, 2026
SD @ SEA
7 - 4
May 15, 2026
SD @ SEA
2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026
SEA @ SD
2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
SEA @ SD
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.693
OPS
▲
.925
182
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+48.6% more
Seattle: 1.5
vs
San Diego: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+46.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+23.2%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Seattle: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
6.3
4
SD Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.5
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.9
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 12.7
12.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.5
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SEA
SD
SEA
ML
51%
85-83
50%
81-81
51%
85-82
52%
85-77
ATS
54%
91-77
60%
98-64
55%
92-75
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
82-80-6
56%
85-67-10
54%
86-74-6
53%
81-71-10
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