HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
23-22 | Road
4
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
25-22 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ezequiel Duran
#20 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Ezequiel Duran | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.80
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
48%
RANGERS
52%
ASTROS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
14.9%
TEX By 1-2 runs
17.5%
TEX By 3-4 runs
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.54
HOUSTON
Texas
4.06
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Texas
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
TEX @ HOU
3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
TEX @ HOU
4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
TEX @ HOU
2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026
HOU @ TEX
5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026
HOU @ TEX
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.582
OPS
▲
.713
4
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+87.0% more
Houston: 1.2
vs
Texas: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+13.6% more
Houston: 7.1
vs
Texas: 6.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.3% more
Houston: 7.9
vs
Texas: 7.0
Home Runs (Season)
+4475.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.5
4
TEX Score
4.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 7.1
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 7.9
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 10.1
7.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.2
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
HOU
TEX
HOU
ML
53%
86-76
50%
81-82
57%
91-70
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
92-70
56%
91-72
61%
98-63
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
78-70-14
45%
70-84-9
55%
81-66-14
45%
69-86-9
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