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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

15-31  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, May 18 • 1:35 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

27-18  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Paul Skenes
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Skenes

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Paul Skenes None-None 2.44 -- 8.0 9
Orion Kerkering None-None 4.08 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.44 Ldr ERA 4.08
-- WHIP --
8.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
9 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
24%
📊
PHILLIES
76%
PIRATES --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Philadelphia)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

36.9%

Phillies Cover

63.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PIT By 1-2 runs

15.4%

PIT By 3-4 runs

9.6%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.91
PITTSBURGH
4.25
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
6
PITTSBURGH
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
76% Win Prob
B
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim Pirates (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 PIT @ PHI 6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026 PIT @ PHI 6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026 PIT @ PHI 0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026 PIT @ PHI 11 - 7
May 17, 2026 PHI @ PIT 6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.734 ▲
OPS
.724
186 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +56.0% more
Philadelphia: 9.8 vs Pittsburgh: 6.3
Hits (L5) +44.1% more
Philadelphia: 9.0 vs Pittsburgh: 6.3
Total Bases (L5) +38.8% more
Philadelphia: 13.4 vs Pittsburgh: 9.7
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.9 0
PHI Score 4.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 6.3 3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 6.3 14.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 9.7 3.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
59% 97-67
52% 82-77
49% 80-84
52% 85-78
ATS
65% 107-57
54% 86-73
51% 83-81
50% 81-82
TTL
57% 88-67-9
47% 72-81-6
51% 78-76-9
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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