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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

23-23  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, May 18 • 1:35 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

23-24  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brayan Bello
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Bello

#66 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Lee None-None 2.29 -- 1.0 1
Brayan Bello None-None 4.02 -- 4.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.29 Ldr ERA 4.02
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
51%
📊
RED SOX
49%
BRAVES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Boston)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

48.0%

Red Sox Cover

52.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.1%

ATL By 3-4 runs

13.0%

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.46
ATLANTA
4.66
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 28, 2026 ATL @ BOS 10 - 2
May 27, 2026 ATL @ BOS 0 - 8
May 26, 2026 ATL @ BOS 7 - 6
May 17, 2026 BOS @ ATL 1 - 8
May 16, 2026 BOS @ ATL 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Boston BOS
1
Games Played
▲ 2
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.233 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.757 ▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +19.4% more
Boston: 3.8 vs Atlanta: 3.2
Strikeouts (L5) +14.6% more
Boston: 8.3 vs Atlanta: 7.3
Runs per Game (Season) +80.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +34.8%
Atlanta: 75.7% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.5 10
BOS Score 4.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 9.8 8.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 7.3 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 16.6 / 15.5 13.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.2 7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATL
BOS
ATL
ML
50% 80-80
46% 77-90
47% 76-87
54% 90-78
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 96-71
48% 79-84
52% 87-81
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 83-73-11
47% 74-83-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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