SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
25-19 | Road
6
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
27-17 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 4.24 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 2.89 | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.24
ERA
Ldr 2.89
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
45%
PADRES
55%
MARINERS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
18.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
13.2%
SD By 3-4 runs
7.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
6.14
SEATTLE
San Diego
4.02
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
C
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
SD @ SEA
8 - 3
May 16, 2026
SD @ SEA
7 - 4
May 15, 2026
SD @ SEA
2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026
SEA @ SD
2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
SEA @ SD
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.693
OPS
▲
.925
182
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+48.8% more
Seattle: 1.6
vs
San Diego: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+46.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Walks (L5)
+45.7% more
San Diego: 2.9
vs
Seattle: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
6.1
6
SD Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.0
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 9.2
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 12.4
10.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.0
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SEA
SD
SEA
ML
51%
85-83
50%
81-81
51%
85-82
52%
85-77
ATS
54%
91-77
60%
98-64
55%
92-75
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
82-80-6
56%
85-67-10
54%
86-74-6
53%
81-71-10
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