NEW YORK
METSNYM
29-17 | Road
2
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
26-19 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | None-None | 7.31 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tim Hill | None-None | 3.54 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.31
ERA
Ldr 3.54
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
55%
YANKEES
45%
METS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
32%
Under 0
68%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.2%
NYM By 3-4 runs
19.0%
NYY By 1-2 runs
12.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
6.85
NEW YORK
New York
4.44
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
NYM @ NYY
0 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
NYM @ NYY
12 - 2
Sep 11, 2026
NYM @ NYY
4 - 6
May 17, 2026
NYY @ NYM
6 - 7
May 16, 2026
NYY @ NYM
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.705
OPS
▲
1.041
204
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+50.0% more
New York: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+108.8% more
New York: 9.0
vs
New York: 4.3
Home Runs (L5)
+108.0% more
New York: 1.5
vs
New York: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
6.9
2
NYY Score
4.4
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.7 / 6.5
7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 7.7
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 9.7
13.0 / 4.0
Walks
4.4 / 4.4
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
NYM
NYY
NYM
ML
47%
76-85
50%
79-80
52%
85-77
48%
76-83
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-66
53%
86-76
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
55%
80-66-13
53%
82-72-7
51%
74-72-13
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