CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
24-24 | Road
7
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
15-32 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Ferguson
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Ferguson | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 3.88 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 3.88
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
68%
PIRATES
32%
REDS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
85%
Under 0
15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
15.9%
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
11.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.42
CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh
2.58
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026
PIT @ CIN
4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
PIT @ CIN
7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026
CIN @ PIT
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.699
OPS
▲
.734
213
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+66.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+50.0% more
Cincinnati: 16.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.4
Hits (L5)
+32.8% more
Cincinnati: 9.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.2
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.4
7
PIT Score
2.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 9.2
5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 7.1
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
8.4 / 16.9
7.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.6
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
52%
82-77
55%
88-71
52%
85-78
49%
79-81
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
86-73
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
81-73-5
50%
79-78-6
54%
83-72-5
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