HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
24-22 | Road
4
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
21-25 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Aranda
#8 | First Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.71 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Jonathan Aranda | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.71
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
56%
RAYS
44%
ASTROS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.9%
TB By 1-2 runs
15.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.59
HOUSTON
Tampa Bay
3.33
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
HOU @ TB
4 - 14
Sep 12, 2026
HOU @ TB
2 - 3
Sep 11, 2026
HOU @ TB
1 - 3
Jul 5, 2026
TB @ HOU
0 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
TB @ HOU
8 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.582
OPS
▲
.728
4
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+44.1% more
Houston: 1.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.0% more
Houston: 8.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 5.9
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
Houston: 0.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Home Runs (Season)
+4125.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.6
4
TB Score
3.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 6.0
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 8.6
3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.6 / 10.0
12.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.8
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
HOU
TB
HOU
ML
58%
95-68
50%
81-82
58%
95-68
47%
77-87
ATS
60%
97-66
56%
91-72
55%
90-73
55%
90-74
TTL
47%
73-81-9
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-75-10
45%
69-86-9
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