Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ White Sox SEA @ CHW

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

26-19  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, May 19 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

14-33  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Davis Martin
STARTING PITCHER

Davis Martin

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andres Munoz None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 1
Davis Martin None-None 3.49 -- 7.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.49
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
76%
📊
WHITE SOX
24%
MARINERS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

77.3%

White Sox Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.4%

SEA By 3-4 runs

19.6%

CHW By 1-2 runs

10.7%

CHW By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.8
SEATTLE
2.81
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
2
SEATTLE
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
76% Win Prob
B
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim White Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 20, 2026 CHW @ SEA 4 - 5
May 19, 2026 CHW @ SEA 2 - 1
May 18, 2026 CHW @ SEA 1 - 6
May 10, 2026 SEA @ CHW 1 - 2
May 9, 2026 SEA @ CHW 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.693
OPS
▲ .826
182 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.5% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +15.3% more
Seattle: 7.8 vs Chicago: 6.6
Home Runs (L5) +8.4% more
Seattle: 1.4 vs Chicago: 1.3
Walks (L5) +92.0% more
Chicago: 3.8 vs Seattle: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 5.8 5
CHW Score 2.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 7.3 5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 7.8 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 13.0 6.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.8 / 2.0 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
SEA
CHW
SEA
ML
49% 81-86
50% 81-81
56% 94-73
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 99-68
60% 98-64
56% 93-74
59% 95-67
TTL
58% 96-69-2
56% 85-67-10
51% 84-81-2
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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