CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
28-20 | Road
14
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
19-27 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nico Hoerner
#2 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 0.73 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
0.73
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
67%
MARLINS
33%
CUBS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CHC By 1-2 runs
15.9%
CHC By 3-4 runs
10.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.74
CHICAGO
Miami
4.89
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
33% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIA @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
MIA @ CHC
3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIA @ CHC
8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026
CHC @ MIA
3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
CHC @ MIA
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.374
OPS
▲
.727
0
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16800.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+391.0% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+100.0% more
Miami: 2.6
vs
Chicago: 1.3
Home Runs (L5)
+64.0% more
Miami: 1.5
vs
Chicago: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
3.7
14
MIA Score
4.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 10.2
6.0 / 21.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.4
7.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
17.6 / 16.2
10.0 / 31.0
Walks
2.6 / 1.3
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHC
MIA
CHC
ML
48%
78-84
58%
93-68
55%
88-72
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
91-71
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-74
47%
75-85-1
TTL
56%
88-69-5
52%
81-74-6
53%
82-73-5
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
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White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
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