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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

25-23  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, May 20 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

27-19  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jake Burger
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Burger

#21 | First Base
@
Will Warren
STARTING PITCHER

Will Warren

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Burger None-None -- -- -- --
Will Warren None-None 4.05 -- 5.2 10
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.05
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 5.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 10
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
43%
📊
YANKEES
57%
RANGERS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Texas)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

53.2%

Yankees Cover

46.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.9%

TEX By 3-4 runs

14.5%

NYY By 1-2 runs

17.8%

NYY By 3-4 runs

12.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.51
TEXAS
5.19
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 TEX @ NYY 2 - 9
May 6, 2026 TEX @ NYY 6 - 1
May 5, 2026 TEX @ NYY 4 - 7
Apr 29, 2026 NYY @ TEX 0 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 NYY @ TEX 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.713
OPS
▲ 1.041
183 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
Texas: 183.0 vs New York: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +116.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Texas: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5) +59.5% more
New York: 10.1 vs Texas: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +38.8% more
New York: 14.4 vs Texas: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 5.5 2
NYY Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 6.4 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 6.4 14.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 10.4 16.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TEX
NYY
TEX
ML
47% 76-85
53% 86-76
52% 85-77
57% 91-70
ATS
59% 95-66
57% 92-70
53% 86-76
61% 98-63
TTL
53% 81-73-7
53% 78-70-14
53% 82-72-7
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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