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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

25-22  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, May 20 • 7:05 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

21-26  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Steven Okert
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Okert

#48 | Relief Pitcher
@
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Steven Okert None-None 2.01 -- 0.1 --
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 2.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.01 ERA Ldr 2.00
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
58%
📊
RAYS
42%
ASTROS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

71.8%

Rays Cover

28.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.3%

HOU By 3-4 runs

18.9%

TB By 1-2 runs

12.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.19
HOUSTON
2.88
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
B
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 HOU @ TB 4 - 14
Sep 12, 2026 HOU @ TB 2 - 3
Sep 11, 2026 HOU @ TB 1 - 3
Jul 5, 2026 TB @ HOU 0 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 TB @ HOU 8 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.582
OPS
▲ .728
4
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +47.0% more
Houston: 1.3 vs Tampa Bay: 0.7
Errors (L5) +47.0% more
Houston: 0.9 vs Tampa Bay: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +43.9% more
Houston: 8.7 vs Tampa Bay: 4.9
Total Bases (L5) +17.8% more
Houston: 12.7 vs Tampa Bay: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 5.2 2
TB Score 2.9 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 7.7 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 4.9 / 8.7 13.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 12.7 8.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.2 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
HOU
TB
HOU
ML
58% 95-68
50% 81-82
58% 95-68
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 91-72
55% 90-73
55% 90-74
TTL
47% 73-81-9
45% 70-84-9
51% 78-75-10
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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