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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

25-25  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, May 21 • 12:35 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

16-33  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Ferguson
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Ferguson

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Henry Davis
STARTING PITCHER

Henry Davis

#32 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Ferguson None-None 4.22 -- 1.1 1
Henry Davis None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.22 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
67%
📊
PIRATES
33%
REDS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 88%
Under 0 12%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

63.2%

Pirates Cover

36.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

17.1%

PIT By 1-2 runs

15.4%

PIT By 3-4 runs

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.31
CINCINNATI
1.96
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.3
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026 PIT @ CIN 4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 PIT @ CIN 7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 CIN @ PIT 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.699
OPS
▲ .734
213 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +54.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8 vs Pittsburgh: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +46.9% more
Cincinnati: 14.4 vs Pittsburgh: 7.6
Hits (L5) +30.4% more
Cincinnati: 8.4 vs Pittsburgh: 5.9
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5 vs Pittsburgh: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.3 1
PIT Score 2.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.9 / 8.4 9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 6.3 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 7.6 / 14.4 11.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.7 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
52% 82-77
55% 88-71
52% 85-78
49% 79-81
ATS
54% 86-73
54% 86-73
50% 81-82
50% 80-80
TTL
47% 72-81-6
53% 81-73-5
50% 79-78-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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